Black Friday 2024 Sales Forecast

Retailers can expect another doorbuster Black Friday–to–Cyber Monday shopping period. Bain forecasts US retail sales will reach $75 billion for the first time ever, growing by about 5% year over year and outpacing our total holiday season forecast of 3%. What’s more, around 8% of Bain-defined holiday sales will come between Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year—the highest share since 2019. This underscores the enduring importance of this key shopping weekend.

Using proprietary credit card data and analytics from Pyxis, we’ve examined US consumer shopping patterns over the past five years to pinpoint the top seven shopping days of the holiday season. The Black Friday–to–Cyber Monday period remains pivotal, with Black Friday consistently ranking as a top sales day, claiming the coveted No. 1 and No. 2 spots in recent years. This makes Black Friday a prime opportunity for retailers to refine their promotion strategies, ensure adequate inventory, and perfect in-store experiences.

Cyber Monday, however, has seen its relevance fade, falling out of the top sales days after 2019. E-commerce growth has slowed, and many shoppers feel that they can conveniently shop online anytime, with deals extending beyond the core weekend.

Other shopping days also are gaining traction. In 2021 and 2023, the days leading up to Christmas topped the charts. In 2023, the day before Thanksgiving emerged as a major shopping day, likely influenced by Thanksgiving Day store closures. This holiday season, with Christmas falling midweek, we anticipate that Black Friday will reclaim its spot as the top shopping day.

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Pyxis

Pyxis, Bain’s consumer intelligence division, helps businesses navigate complex consumer landscapes and stay ahead of the competition. With one of the world’s largest ecosystems of transactional data, Pyxis has completed over 1,500 projects, delivering SKU-level visibility and uncovering shifts that drive growth, market share, loyalty, product development, M&A, and more.

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